Rashtchy points to the company’s ability to continually dominate the paid-search business. In 2005, he estimates that Google accounted for 64% of the $10 billion generated in global search sales. On a net basis, or excluding what Google pays out to its distribution partners, the search firm is estimated to generate $4 billion in revenue for all of 2005.
This year, the analyst expects Google’s net sales will grow by 58% vs. an overall paid-search market growth of 41%. Analysts currently predict Google will grow net sales by 60% this year, so Rashtchy is in line.
He also expects Google to grow faster than the entire industry over the next five years, and therefore gain market share. He expects the industry to grow by 37% compounded annually through 2010. At that point, Rashtchy estimates that the paid-search business will be $33 billion.