Facebook Falling Off?

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 by Jordan McCollum

Facebook Falling Off?

Is the honeymoon over for media darling Facebook? Well, yes and no. Hitwise today shows that Facebook’s market share is down, while their average time on site continues in its upward trend. However, Youth Trends‘ February report puts Facebook at the top of students’ list for the seventh straight quarter with 60% of males and 74% of females ranking it as their favorite site.

Hitwise’s Heather Dougherty (not to be confused with her UK coworker, Heather Hopkins) takes a look at Facebook’s popularity in the US, and the results are mixed:

One interesting point to note is that during recent peaks in traffic, the average visit time decreases, evidence that these spikes are being driven by less active users of Facebook.

Conversely, then, it is also these less active users that may be causing the drop offs, if average time on site continues its upward trend.

There are various theories as to why the sudden drop offs happen. The increase of application spam is one popular scapegoat. But here, exclusive to Marketing Pilgrim, is an in-depth analysis of the reasons behind Facebook’s traffic stumbles, as shown on Hitwise’s graph of weekly market share.

But as Youth Trends’ report states, it’s still the favorite website of college students—maybe we should be glad that they’re buckling down for a change .

Guys, this stuff happens. Economies just can’t grow all the time. It’s not the end of the world, and it’s probably not the end of Facebook, either.

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25 comments on “Facebook Falling Off?”

Relainer Says:

February 26th, 2008 at 5:09 pm

well facebook is just another fad and will pass soon, like myspace but it seems just the average everyone got over the hype cycle so people aren’t as keen on using it as they used to.

also the graph was amusing
Jordan McCollum Says:

February 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm

Oh? MySpace still has more users and a far higher market share than Facebook does.
Social Marketing Journal Says:

February 26th, 2008 at 6:15 pm

That graph is absolutely hysterical and most likely rather accurate!

As for it being a “fad”…we highly doubt that as Facebook is used consistently as a way to keep in touch with friends all in one place (just as Myspace) and used for other significant reasons. Facebook is not going away anytime soon and any significant fluctuation in traffic mostly likely DOES have to do with the application spam which hopefully they do get under control.
Craig Says:

February 26th, 2008 at 11:46 pm

Facebook is really rolling right now. I don’t like the interface because it doesn’t allow much room for creativity, but most people seem to love the simplicity.
Miracle Blade Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 12:04 am

I think the honeymoon is definitely over for FaceBook. The initial surge is slowing down and they need to find new innovative ways of sustaining it. Cluttering the interface with a million different things doesn’t help either.
Zen Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 6:08 am

Very funny chart labels. ROFL!
Seomotion Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 8:07 am

It is not strange that Facebook falling off, because there are a lot of social network with more user friendly interfaces now. I don’t like facebook.

There is interesting situation in Russia:
You can see at Alexa Rating http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_sites?cc=RU&ts_mode=country&lang=none

Most popular website in Russia is http://www.Vkontakte.ru , which is based on slolen source code of Facebook.com
Dan Perry Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am

Facebook used to have a layer of professionalism, but it seems to be waning. It feels more and more like MySpace everyday. Personally, I hope it turns around, but time will tell.
Steven Bradley Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 12:19 pm

Funny graph labels and most likely very true as well. Sometimes we analyze too much don’t we?
tony spencer Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 2:27 pm

Hilarious graph.

BTW I found this blog post via Facebook
Tom Beaton Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 3:02 pm

I think that people have just lost interest a bit. It has become overrun with spammy apps and PR firms are managing celebrities profiles and some severely uncool people like politicians are using it as a tool to appear cool to kids.
Internet Marketing Joy Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 4:26 pm

I think mainly because of those useless applications. Some members were bored of waiting until the pages load.
Craig Says:

February 27th, 2008 at 6:08 pm

I think the downfall of Facebook is all of those annoying applications people spam me with! Grow up people, seriously. I don’t care if you got bit by a vampire! lol.
Sam M Says:

February 28th, 2008 at 12:31 am

Could it be that Facebook is being targeted by the “get-rich-spammers” - and that the water has become too murky in the Facebook bowl?
Mobile guy Says:

February 28th, 2008 at 9:34 am

Facebook’s market shares were blown up.
Facebook fatigue? « Travel Marketing in the Age of Web 2.0 & Beyond Says:

February 28th, 2008 at 4:20 pm

[...] on February 28, 2008. Facebook Falling Off? asks Marketing Pilgrim and shows us a neat graph to visualize what might be the answer to the [...]
GoWFB Says:

February 28th, 2008 at 8:09 pm

I wonder if people got tired of throwing sheep at one another
Nicole Says:

February 29th, 2008 at 4:33 am

I am done with facebook after 5 months of regular use. Grown over it. Find it too boring now. I guess the fad will pass over time.
Alex Isaacs Says:

March 1st, 2008 at 8:25 pm

I’ve had success with using Facebook as a networking tool. Can’t tell ya how many dates I’ve scored from there!
Jayson Says:

March 2nd, 2008 at 3:52 pm

That’s a pretty nice and hilarious graph and more than likely represents what happened.

I think Facebook will be okay, I don’t think it will experience huge growth in a short period of time, but that from now on, growth will be nice and steady. Of course it’ll most likely experience a decreases during finals and research projects.

IMO, the company is already solid and it’s use will grow.
C Smith Says:

March 9th, 2008 at 6:53 am

With the number of users increasing, why would you not expect to find (over time) a tailing off in active users. Perhaps, there are more facebook users who have signed up because of friend pressure but aren’t taking it very seriously at the moment or because they haven’t got many friends yet.

This is probably bound to happen as the website popularity increases. Facebook pioneers are always likely to be the most active.
MB Web Design Says:

June 25th, 2008 at 8:08 am

Though it’s popular, Facebook has no ‘right’ to continue growing or making money, I’d be inclined to say it is a fad that will pass but I’m sure there will be a plateau once the media hype about FB subsides.
Brisbane Marketing Consultant Says:

August 1st, 2008 at 1:59 am

I’m using Facebook less and less. It was consuming too much time and getting too cluttered.
PERSONALIZE MEDIA» Last Post Marketing Media Personalizing Virtual Worlds » “A Few Lives Left” for Poor Research into Virtual Worlds Says:

August 23rd, 2008 at 7:42 pm

[...] pilgrim had a similar issue with the so-called end of Facebook hype from a few weeks ago ‘Facebook Falling Off” and pointed out the hysteria generated by a few dips in this diagram - as Jordon MoCollom [...]
Internet marketing tips Says:

October 22nd, 2008 at 12:16 am

It’s probably cause of how slow those pages load !

Internet marketing tips’s last blog post..Trying To Find The Best Place To Invest Money?

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