Zenith’s original forecast, made in March, said the Internet would account for 9.7 percent of global ad spending this year, for a total of $47.5 billion, and 12.3 percent in 2010, or $66.9 billion.
In the new forecast, Zenith predicts that online spending will exceed 10 percent of all advertising in 2008, for a total of $52.2 billion, and in 2010 account for 13.6 percent, or $78.2 billion.
Makes you want to grab the champagne, right?
But, with all these forecasts, studies, estimates, and whatnot, where’s the accountability? Who’s logging these numbers and then looking back at their accuracy?
We’ve already seen that research companies can be way off base, when it comes to forecasting web spend, so why is it that we just eat these numbers up, without wondering how accurate they are?
I’d love to see a company that keeps track of these estimates. Come 2009, was Zenith correct in its forecast of $52.2 billion in online ad spending for 2008? Which company was the most accurate? Who do we trust?