Posted December 16, 2008 10:17 am by with 9 comments

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If you’re waiting for that elusive “Year of the Mobile” you might want to mark you calendar for the year 2020. According to a new Pew study, that’s when “internet experts” suggest enough of us will have web-enabled cell phones in our pockets to make it a reality.

Another eight twelve years!!!

And, that’s just the optimists! According to the “Future of the Internet III” study the pessimists among us don’t believe that 2020 is a realistic goal. According to MediaPost:

However, not all the experts surveyed by Pew envisioned a boundless future for mobile. Some expressed doubts about open networks, bandwidth and screen size, among other aspects of cell phones.

Some believe that the lack of a universally-available wireless network is the biggest barrier to growth, while others suggest that the small screen size of cell phones mean that there will never really be a “Year of the Mobile.”

What do you think? How close are we to that elusive year?

  • I think I can wait till the year of the mobile. It really isn’t that big a deal to me.

    Blog Expert’s last blog post..How I Gained 200 RSS Subscribers in 2 Days

  • I don’t know, 12 years is a very long time. In 96 I don’t think anyone would have thought the iPhone would have a reality so soon, or any number of innovative technologies.

    And isn’t the ‘year of mobile’ darn near upon us? I feel like the Black Berry brought a lot of ideas to fruition, iPhone set a new standard and the latest models are raising the bar. I wish I wouldn’t have left some stats on mobile browsing at home, or I would throw some numbers to back this up, but I feel it will be a lot sooner than people think.

    Mobile browsing is already so readily available. It just needs a few tweaks. It’s been made obvious that the masses want it, and the larger players in the mobile industry will now do what it takes to overcome any hurdles to provide a palatable product.

    12 years…pfft. I should be “jacking in” to learn Kung-Fu in 12 years.

    Josh Garner’s last blog post..Reputation Management With Trackur

  • Will “Year of the Mobile” get a sign on the Chinese zodiac?

    I am already thrilled with the mobile internet. Just wish my iPhone did flash. It might not be all handheld devices because of features that would never work well on them like document editing, etc. The devices may be capable of it, but I think the interfaces will remain cumbersome. Even if the whole tactile screen thing works out just think about working with formulas in spreadsheets or editing HTML effectively on the go. I used to have a Treo which was very capable with spreadsheets etc, but it was just too small of a screen and keyboard to work for long periods. Maybe there will be more saturation of laptops with broadband cards in them. I love my tiny little sony with a sprint card!

  • Quote “Another eight years!!!”

    Oh man, is it 2012 already? Wow, time flies! 😉

    Seriously, I think the definition of the “Year of the Mobile” is changing just as fast as the technology. People naturally always want more than they currently have, and mobile technology is no different. I know there’s a lot more functionality to be squeezed out of a small square of silicone, but let’s try to define what the “Year of the Mobile” will look like, otherwise we can’t truly say we’ve reached the “Age of Computing” since desktop computers are still evolving (and always will be).

    For me, a mobile device is just a tool. The more I can do with it, the better. But the really important stuff I’ll always have to do myself…like actually eat the pizza from the place that I found on my mobile phone’s browser and ordered using secure mobile online payments.

    Andrew Miller’s last blog post..Web 2.0 Secrets in the Wall Street Journal

  • @Andrew – well spotted. 😉

  • That sounds great “Year of the Mobile”. I want to wait but there is no guarantee of tomorrow in the life as well as present moment.

  • Sounds llike very good.

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