The findings are reported over at eMarketer from a study done by the Kelsey Group and BIA Advisory Services. By the year 2013 the local ad market will shrink. The compound annual growth rate from 2008 – 1013 is projected to be -1.4% with the biggest year to year decline occurring this year. Here’s the picture.
I am not a very big fan of these crystal ball prognostications. We are barely able to determine what will happen 6 months from now let alone 4 plus years from now. The pattern that is predicted however makes sense. The decline will occur in traditional media. There is no surprise here. We can see how poorly things are going for local advertising by simply looking at the state of the newspaper industry. That combined with doubt as to the future of hard Yellow Page advertising explains the drop in that area. It’s predicting the numbers that always makes everyone queasy.
Now, the upside of this is the fact that online local advertising is anticipated to grow significantly. It is predicted by this study to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 18%. Right now online advertising is about 12% of the overall local spending and that could go as high as 22% by 2013. Impressive numbers for sure if you are in the online space and if you chose to buy the research.
I think it’s less about being right about the magnitude of the change but rather about the change itself. The real question and thinking should be around why this is happening. So why is it? It’s becoming a bit of a broken record but online is trackable and measurable in ways that traditional marketing isn’t. Based on that it just makes better sense for businesses to use marketing dollars where they can be most effective with a greater return on investment.
So as an Internet marketer make sure you look past the headlines. This is the good side of the marketing fence to be on for the foreseeable future because the grass is getting greener right where we are.