Friday, April 24th, 2009 by Andy Beal

41

Forrester Predicts Huge Growth for Social Media Marketing

Forrester Research is holding its own conference down in Orlando and has just revealed its predictions for the growth of online advertising. The bottom line is that social media and mobile will be the hottest, but just about everything will see an upward trend.

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41 comments on “Forrester Predicts Huge Growth for Social Media Marketing”

  1. WebbyThoughts Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 9:59 am

    That is a huge increase from 9% to 19% in the % of total ad spending that will be online. TV, radio and newspapers will really be hurting when that happens.

    WebbyThoughts’s last blog post..Check your Google Webmaster Tools account

  2. Irisa Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 11:02 am

    I’m not so confident in Social Media Advertising…Facebook & Co. have always shown a huge amount of traffic and a small conversion rate…

  3. Freebie King Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    Obviously social media is the way to go, but which ones are the future? Twitter? Facebook? Something new?

    Freebie King’s last blog post..Free Samples of Nivea Touch of Happiness Body Wash (US)

  4. Ben Fremer Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 1:30 pm

    Wow. Good industry to be in.

    If my math isn’t off…the online ad market should be as big as all other forms of advertising combined in about 10 years according to these projections (if it again doubles in years 5-10), which makes a strong case for youngsters like me to not bother too much learning to master the dying arts of traditional advertising. ( estimates from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advertising ).

    Super good chart. Thanks. :)

  5. Andy Beal Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    @Freebie King – yeah, it’s easy to predict a growth in social media marketing spending–that’s a no-brainer–but how and where is another question.

  6. James Stratford Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 3:49 pm

    The social media spending forecasts are based upon reliable data they’ve compiled. The television, radio and newspapers have already been impacted which is to be expected, but it’s only the start. Conventional medias will need to learn to implement Social Media Strategies in order to become recognized where there is hardly an presence. The interesting thing is the process is different and it’s a whole new learning curve which won’t be a fit most of them. They’ll have to reach out and recruit people with a practical background in social media and some knowlege of direct response marketing as well.

    As for Irisa’s comment about low conversions I’m not sure about your numbers, but it’s a different world on the internet. It’s all going to depend on the social media plan and how it’s implemented. Almost all of the players are newbies and in the experimentation stage no matter how much education they have. At the moment there wouldn’t be enough data in one place to quantify something and expect to forecast a specific result so the margins or error are going to be larger. With more traditional internet marketing models it’s 3-5% for an average conversion. The conversion from this model will be determined by the combination of all the variables so SEO will be a key with split testing, examining the site metrics, analyzing the demographics including countries of origination are all keys.

    It’s time for me to let others comment this isn’t a blog post, but hopefully you get the gist of what was stated. It takes a good team with one person to monitor things that allows each person to fulfill their roles independently and yet they are interdependent at the same time.

    James Stratford’s last blog post..10 Direct Response Business Components

  7. Robert Lönn Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    Interesting stuff. We know for sure that the dumb, broadcasting TV ads will loose ground due to technical improvements of the recording possibilities and I hope social media can gain percentage from that. It has great potential of being a lot more accurate than TV.

  8. 27 - 34 - 11 hut! | BSH Marketing Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 9:31 pm

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  9. doug@retail prophet Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 9:52 pm

    Very similar to the explosion in the number of magazines published in N.A.

    In the 60’s there were a handfull, today their are hundreds.

    It’s all just thin segmenting of info. Just like magazines, sites and technologies will move in and out of vogue.

  10. Maayan Roman Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 9:55 pm

    Of course social media marketing should be paid attention to but that doesn’t mean you can completely ignore traditional media. I think that people have gotten too used to the idea of internet advertising yielding direct and immediate conversions – let’s not forget that a big part of advertising is building a perception in consumer’s minds that may not ellicit immediate action, but rather influence their opinions of brands and produce consumption after the fact. It’s not always so easy to trace what causes purchases. I’m also kind of surprised that they predict email marketing to stay the same when it’s so much more lucrative than other forms of marketing.

  11. Jason Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 10:39 pm

    Social media is going to be where it’s at because it’s less costly for companies due to incredibly shrinking marketing budgets.

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  13. Jennie Bewes (Twitter @jbewes) Says:

    April 24th, 2009 at 11:22 pm

    The chart above states ’social media… will be the hottest’ area of growth for ‘online advertising’. Whilst I agree with the first half of the statement, I’ve two concerns with the ‘for online advertising’ part:

    CONCERN #1) some marketeers may interpret this as a new place for them to heavy-handedly paint their marketing messages

    –> For me, the increased investment should be in (a) analytics engines, not advertising engines; (b) human-led interaction, not machine-led interaction.

    CONCERN #2) whilst the SoMed advocates talk about ‘major growth’, Traditionalists see the investment/return as a small fish in a big ocean and therefore put a lower priority on it

    –> To change this we need to change the way we look at ROI. Many companies attribute marketing success based on its conversion to purchase (revenue). My belief is that success needs to be looked at from the more granular level of conversion to following life-cycle stage. Let me explain…

    EVERY consumer goes through the customer lifecycle (Awareness > Consideration > Inquiry > Purchase, etc, etc); though each at varying speeds, each using different tools & touch-points [physical & digital] and each having varying levels of influence for each of these.

    The top-level view compares activities based on their financial benefit to the business; regardless of whether that activity is an Awareness generating activity, a Consideration generating activity or a Purchase generating activity. Of course, when comparing these, the latter will always appear the most effective as the customer’s decision is 90% there already. Take the earlier activities away though, and watch its conversion rate plummet.

    The granular level ROI then, measures success based on the objective of that activity. Awareness:Consideration conversion, Consideration:Inquiry conversion, Inquiry:Purchase conversion. This way you can compare conversion rates fairly, at an objective level; pick the success and the failures; and refine your marketing activity more effectively.

    What’s this got to do with Social Media? In general, my view is that Social Media’s core objectives lie in the pre-Inquiry stages*. So whilst commercial gain at the top-level may not appear life-changing, it’s the impact from its growing influence at the earlier stages that will affect conversion rates (online AND offline) later down the track.

    *I say ‘in general’ because, to my earlier point, it’s important that you understand it’s role & influence level in the life-cycle stages of YOUR target personas.

    Right, I’ll jump off the soap-box now {passionate? Moi?}

    :)

  14. Steve Golab Says:

    April 25th, 2009 at 12:54 am

    Please note 17% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is down almost 40% from Forresters same projections in 2008. At that time, Forrester was predicting 27% CAGR for the sector.

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  24. warren allen Says:

    April 28th, 2009 at 8:15 am

    I find it interesting social media is one category and online is another. Silly me, I wasn’t aware of social media that *wasn’t* online. Is that people going into bars? Church groups?

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  28. tukang nggame Says:

    April 28th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

    interesting article, to be more far understood about social media.
    thanks andy

    tukang nggame’s last blog post..Kampanye Damai Pemilu Indonesia 2009

  29. Jason Says:

    April 28th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

    I think the big companies are looking at social media as the next thing. Is Twitter up for sale yet?

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