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# Google Knows What You’ll Search For–12 Months From Now

Google knows what you’re going to be searching for in 12 months from now! OK, maybe not all the things you’ll Google–it can’t predict the next celebrity scandal or social media phenom–but, for general search queries, it knows all about you.

In a new white paper just released, Google reveals how its working to predict future search trends.

I’m not a mathematician, so appreciated this basic summary:

For each trends sequence of interest, we take a point in time, t, which is about a year back, compute a one year forecasting for t based on historical data available at time t, and compare it to the actual trends sequence that occurs since time t. The error between the forecasting trends and the actual trends characterizes the predictability level of a sequence, and when the error is smaller than a pre-defined threshold, we denote the trends query as predictable.

Piece of cake!

Some of the findings include:

• Over half of the most popular Google search queries are predictable in a 12 month ahead forecast, with a mean absolute prediction error of about 12%.
• Nearly half of the most popular queries are not predictable (with respect to the model we have used).
• Some categories have particularly high fraction of predictable queries; for instance, Health (74%), Food & Drink (67%) and Travel (65%).

And, as the chart below demonstrates, Google’s margin of error stays pretty consistent even when making predictions 9 months out!

• http://www.barbaraling.com/ Barbara Ling, Virtual Coach

The first thing I thought was, ah hah! Math! My math degree in use!

Google will end up taking over the world, so their advances really don’t surprise me…..
.-= Barbara Ling, Virtual Coach´s last blog ..BY Invitation ONLY – Income Fitness Launch =-.

Math is Hard!

• http://taylor-and-associates.com Allen Taylor

I could have predicted this was coming. Google wants to know it all. The question is, how can Internet marketers use that information to help them better use the tools available? I’m presuming that some element of the trends predictions will be public – perhaps through Google Trends? If that is the case then this could be good news for all marketers. I am relieved, however, that this is trend-related and not personal, though it is highly likely that Google could perform the same trend analysis on a micro level.
.-= Allen Taylor´s last blog ..How \$5 Doubled My Income Within 7 Days =-.

• http://taylor-and-associates.com Allen Taylor

OK, just read the article at the GoogleResearch blog. It looks like this information will be made public through Insights for Search.
.-= Allen Taylor´s last blog ..How \$5 Doubled My Income Within 7 Days =-.

• http://www.marketingpilgrim.com Andy Beal

• http://www.jaankanellis.com Jaan Kanellis

Makes sense to me. Anyone who actually uses Google keyword tools and has been following Google Hot Trends for over a year now can see this.

TV shows, holidays and annual events all can be predicted as hot trends on Google.
.-= Jaan Kanellis´s last blog ..Bing Shows You Who Is On Your Shared IP =-.

• http://blogviet.info Tinh

That is wonderful feature but not sure how exactly it is all about.
.-= Tinh´s last blog ..Google, Công Cụ Tìm Kiếm Làm Hài Lòng Khách Hàng Nhất =-.

• http://tech2know.wordpress.com Manish

Interesting…Thanks.
.-= Manish´s last blog ..[How to] Find and Remove Spywares, Rootkits from your system with free SpyDLLRemover 2.5 =-.

• http://www.leeberlemann.com Lee

Wow. That is really interesting. I must wonder how-long it took Googles statistics people to come-up with a reasonably accurate formula?
Keep up the interesting posts!.
Lee
.-= Lee´s last blog ..Cheap Hosting For Everyone!!! =-.