Twitter: It’s All Downhill from Here
If you’re a visual learner, I have great news: the technology equivalent of Hot or Not is available in graph form. Research firm Gartner Inc has published the 2009 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, with a handy graphic detailing the hype cycle and 79 technology trends and topics on the curve.
The “Hype Cycle” illustrates the growth, maturity and adoption of technologies—but most of all, it looks at how much hype and media coverage these topics get. It can also be used to determine whether to invest in types of tech, according to Gartner—technologies with high user benefit and low time to mainstream acceptance are ripe for investment and implementation, while technologies with minimal user benefit and a long time until mainstream acceptance should be approached with “extreme caution.”
Microblogging is nearing the end of the peak of inflated expectations. (I trust I don’t need to show you proof that they’ve definitely entered that peak—where media frenzy leads to artificially high expectations.) They’re nearing the trough of disillusionment—where the inflated expectations create a backlash, the technologies fall out of media favor, and hype diminishes.
What do you think? Is Twitter already past the peak of inflated expectations, or to we have a lot more glowing stories to hear from the most popular microblogging service? What technology do you see as most interesting in its position on this chart?