Posted January 12, 2012 4:25 pm by with 6 comments

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or one thousand million,

also known as a milliard,

or in common parlance, “a whole lot of” whatever it is you’re counting.

In this case, it’s people using Facebook, which makes that number even more insane.

An analyst from iCrossing has made his mark today by predicting when Facebook will hit this auspicious number.

He made allowances for the natural slowdown of early adopting countries, then calculated in the effect of new countries joining the fray and here’s what he got:

Date of predicted splash down? August 2012. I can already hear the bookies in Vegas laying down odds.

But what does this mean in the real world? Honestly, not much. Facebook is already the number one social media site by a wide margin. As much as people complain and joke about being a part of the network, they still make their profiles and participate because if you’re not in, you’re out.

For marketers, it does mean more potential eyeballs on your Facebook ads and pages. But again, it’s not like you were waiting for the site to become more popular before you invested your time and money. Right?

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What one billion users really means is that Facebook isn’t going away any time soon. Will it ever go away? For that, I point you to Myspace, the former social media leader. I don’t honestly believe that Facebook will be beat in the next ten years, but as a new generation moves into power, they might decide they want something fresh and new of their own.

You know that little kid down the street who always has his fingers flying over his iPhone? He could be the next Mark Zuckerberg and he’s already working on a plan to take Facebook down.

Nothing lasts forever.

  • What are you taking, Cynthia? The over or the under on August 1, 2012? I’m taking the contrarian view and taking the over since I think that those who are social network minded in areas where there is “low hanging fruit” are already on. The new blood, so to speak will have to come from countries like Brazil who are committed to Orkut. In other words, Facebook will have to compete and I don’t know that they have the chops to do it.

  • I think I would be more interested in seeing the total growth of actual active users not just the total number of total profiles on the site. It is still very unlikely that other social services would be able to catch up any time soon but knowing retention rates over time is also important to consider.

    • Cynthia Boris

      I was going to address that but couldn’t find solid numbers. Facebook claims that at least 50% of their users check in every day or some such nonsense. I actually wouldn’t be surprised since even the people I know who hate Facebook, still use it pretty regularly. Between autoposting from Twitter and blogs (which I do) and posting on phones, TV, cars, etc, I can see them having a much larger return rate than any other social network.

  • Good Info
    Thanks 🙂

  • Someone please call me when 1 billion REAL people actually USE Facebook.

    • Cynthia Boris

      As opposed to monkeys? Do you think they’re faking the numbers?