For 18-34 year olds, an 8.5% increase in Twitter volume corresponds to a 1% increase in TV ratings for premiere episodes.
A 4.2% increase in Twitter volume corresponds with a 1% increase in ratings for midseason episodes.
For 35-49 year olds, a 14.0% increase in Twitter volume is associated with a 1% increase in TV program ratings.
For those who prefer to see things graphically. . .
What are we to make of this (besides a broach and a hat)?
Mike Hess, Executive Vice President of Media Analytics for Nielsen says:
“While our study doesn’t prove causality, the correlation we uncovered is significant and we will continue our research to deepen the industry’s understanding of this relationship.”
I’m a little confused. First, let’s be clear that we’re talking about Tweets that relate to a live program. In TV terms, that means it’s airing right now, not necessarily airing “live” as in Saturday Night Live. This means that any action that happens online could have a real time, measurable effect. But which action is the cause and which is the result?
Susie is watching a new episode of The Vampire Diaries. On screen, Damon takes his shirt off. Susie tweets: “OMG Ian Somerhalder just took his shirt off on #TheVampireDiaries !!!”
Susie’s followers see her Tweet so they rush to their TVs and turn it on just as he’s putting his shirt back on. . . damn. But they’ve tuned in, so they stay and the ratings for the episode go up.
Conclusion: Rabid fan tweets cause more people to tune in.
The Vampire Diaries promo suggests that there will be a big reveal (in addition to Ian Somerhalder’s bare chest) in the next episode so more people tune in than normal causing the ratings to rise. Since more people are watching and 40% of smartphone and tablet owners use social media while watching, they tweet about the episode.
Conclusion: High ratings means there are more people who can go online and tweet about the show.
Which comes first? The chicken or the digital egg?
It’s probably a little bit of both. Social media works best when it’s in a loop – I tell you to watch, you watch, then you tell me how much you liked it. Or could it be that Twitter buzz is actually increasing engagement?
One thing Twitter does do is take viewers deeper into the experience. If they’re watching with one eye while they read their email on their tablet, they’re probably not paying much attention to the commercials or even the Subway product placement.
On the other hand, if they’re watching and Tweeting with other fans, they’re less likely to miss the details even when you wish they would.
There is a lesson to be learned here about the power of social media. If Twitter buzz and TV ratings are this closely tied together, imagine if we could use that same power to promote a cause. I love TV, but why don’t we all take a moment today to spread the word about something a little more important.
Power to the Twitter-People!