eMarketer Daily looked into its crystal ball once again Monday to produce another collection of contradictory studies and quotations. This time, we get to debate whether eCommerce will plateau soon or continue to grow the way it has (article free & live for a limited time).

The problem with exponential or even linear growth is that as you get bigger and bigger, it becomes more and more difficult to sustain the same rate of growth—but not necessarily the same amount of growth. For example, if there are 100 retailers online in 2005, 50 new retailers in 2006 is 50% growth. Add 50 more retailers in 2007, and suddenly the growth rate “plummets” to 33.3%. Also, 100% saturation doesn’t seem like a realistic goal in this generation, so yes, growth will eventually slow down.

Allurent, Inc. has released its “Holiday Shopping: Online Customer Experience Survey.” Their main finding is:

The survey revealed that a growing number of consumers (41% in 2006 compared to 28% in 2005) said a frustrating online experience would make them less likely to shop at that retailer’s physical store. And 59% reported that when they have a frustrating shopping experience online, it negatively impacts their overall opinion of the retailer/brand. In 2005, this number was 55%. The percentage of consumers who said a frustrating shopping experience online makes them less likely to shop at the retailer’s physical store remained at an overwhelming 82%, the same as 2005. [sic]

Based on last year’s study, I believe the last sentence should read, “The percentage of consumers who said a frustrating shopping experience online makes them less likely to return to the retailer’s website remained at an overwhelming 82%, the same as 2005.”